Underestimating the Fog

I spend a good amount of my time working on global warming policy. I don’t get far into the weeds of hard core statistical research, like some people, but I see a fair amount of bad statistical information about global warming. For example, last week there was a lot of news article about Antarctica melting. The problem is that the data is from just 3 years. Whoop-dee-do. So what if there is a 3 year trend? If the trend keeps up, then it matters, but 3 years is far to short on a geologic time scale.

I wish the media and others would like half as much about statistics as baseball scholar Bill James does. Here’s a recent article where he looks at some standard baseball claims and shows that there is no such thing a clutch hitting, or one hitter making another hitter better, and other interesting tid bits.

Floyd Landis Wins Paris-Nice

Floyd Landis won the Paris-Nice bike race today. Unlike Lance Armstrong, from what I know, Floyd is a great guy and very humble (it probably helps that he was raised Amish). Now that Lance Armstrong has retired I hope OLN and other tv networks will continue to show bike races. But things look good, this year was the first year that OLN had coverage of Paris-Nice. And next week they will cover Milan-San Remo–the first of the spring classics.

What I Told the Connecticut Legislature

On Monday, I had the opportunity to testify before the Connecticut state legislature on the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). RGGI is essentially a mini-Kyoto Protocol. RGGI and the Kyoto Protocol regulate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted and thereby limit the type of energy produced by a state or country. A major problem with RGGI and the Kyoto Protocol is that there are very, very small benefits from implementing these plans, but the costs are large.

My testimony:

My message today is simple