George Orwell would love Tim Geithner

Tim Geithner is the master of doublethink:

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner vowed Tuesday that the United States would never follow a strategy to weaken the US dollar.

“Our policy has been and will always be, as long as I will be in office, that a strong dollar is in the interest of the country,” Geithner said at a New York conference organized by the Council of Foreign Relations.

“We will never embrace a strategy to weaken the dollar.”

It was the first time this year that Geithner had publicly proclaimed a US strong-dollar policy, a mantra of treasury secretaries for more than a decade.

In the year to date, the dollar has lost 6.5 percent of its value compared with a basket of currencies held by its major trade partners.

The LA Times Unwittingly Argues for Privatizing Health Care

The L.A. Times today ponders whether it’s time for a “fat tax” and argue that “offering incentives for lifestyle choices likely to cut medical costs is an idea worth considering.” The problem is that this is exactly why the market is far superior to government control. Markets generally provide the proper incentives, such as those that the L.A. Times argues for in their conclusion:

There’s the inevitable complaint that some smokers and overeaters live long and healthy lives and yet would have to pay the surcharge. That’s true enough, but the statistics are against them, and that should be reflected in insurance costs. Smoking and obesity greatly increase the risk of chronic and life-threatening health problems that in many cases are preventable, including stroke, cancer, heart disease and diabetes. It makes sense to tie higher preventable risk to higher premiums. Not all rock climbers have serious accidents, either, but they still pay more for life insurance, when they can find it.

This approach is far more appealing than taxing soda and is more likely to improve America’s health. It provides a direct link between unhealthy ways of living and the consequences. Americans need information, through labeling, nutrition education and medical advice, to make smart diet decisions. Then they should be free to eat what they want — as long as they bear the cost of their personal choices.

Governments consistently divorce people from the consequences of their actions, which is one of the serious problems with more and more government control of health care. It is sometimes illegal for health insurance companies to discriminate as the L.A. Times is advocating in this piece, but proper incentives are critical to good outcomes. Sadly the government does not provide good incentives because that’s not the job of politicians. The job of politicans is to do what they think will get them elected and tough love is frequently not popular.

The share of the population that is working fell to its lowest level in 30 years

This is just depressing:

The share of the population that is working fell to its lowest level last year since women started entering the workforce in large numbers three decades ago, a USA TODAY analysis finds.

An aging population contributes to a challenge for the nation’s social programs.

Only 45.4% of Americans had jobs in 2010, the lowest rate since 1983 and down from a peak of 49.3% in 2000. Last year, just 66.8% of men had jobs, the lowest on record.

The bad economy, an aging population and a plateau in women working are contributing to changes that pose serious challenges for financing the nation’s social programs.

“What’s wrong with the economy may be speeding up trends that are already happening,” says Marc Goldwein, policy director of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan group favoring smaller deficits.

For example, job troubles appear to have slowed a trend of people working later in life, putting more pressure on Social Security, he says.

Another change: the bulk of those not working has shifted from children to adults.

In 2000, the nation had roughly the same number of children and non-working adults. Since then, the population of non-working adults has grown 27 million while the nation added just 3 million children under 18.

 

Atlas Shrugged needs an update

PJ O’Rourke’s has a review of Atlas Shrugged in the WSJ. It doesn’t sound like it isn’t a good movie and one of the problem is that the book was published in 1957, but set in the future. But that future doesn’t really make any sense.  O’Rourke argues that the movie should have updated the book because the collectivists are still with us, but now they are going after the average Joe: 

An update is needed, and not just because train buffs, New Deal economics and the miracle of the Bessemer converter are inexplicable to people under 50, not to mention boring.  The anti-individualist enemies that Ayn Rand battled are still the enemy, but they’ve shifted their line of attack.  Political collectivists are no longer much interested in taking things away from the wealthy and creative. Even the most left-wing politicians worship wealth creation—as the political-action-committee collection plate is passed.  Partners at Goldman Sachs go forth with their billions.  Steve Jobs walks on water. Jay-Z and Beyoncé are rich enough to buy God. Progressive Robin Hoods have turned their attention to robbing ordinary individuals.  It’s the plain folks, not a Taggart/Rearden elite, whose prospects and opportunities are stolen by corrupt school systems, health-care rationing, public employee union extortions, carbon-emissions payola and deficit-debt burden graft.  Today’s collectivists are going after malefactors of moderate means.

Hence the Tea Party, and Ayn Rand is invited. Not for nothing is Kentucky Senator Paul named Rand. The premise of “Atlas Shrugged” applies to every maker in a world of takers. What if,pace Adam Smith, the takers do indeed expect their dinner “from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker”? And what if the Safeway meat-cutter, the beer-truck driver, and the guy who owns the Dunkin’ Donuts franchise say to hell with “their regard to their own interest”?  What if they go off with John Galt to a secret hidden unknown valley in the Rocky Mountains?  A lot of people will be chewing air and drinking puddle water.

The power of Algebra II

Who knew:

Of all of the classes offered in high school, Algebra II is the leading predictor of college and work success, according to research that has launched a growing national movement to require it of graduates.

I think I did pretty well in Algebra II, but I sucked at Trig if I remember correctly. 

Detroit is dying at an amazing speed…

This is just amazing. Freakonomics reports:

Census data released this week confirmed what we already knew: Detroit is dying. It’s just happening much faster than we thought. From 2000 to 2010, Detroit lost a quarter of its population; 273,500 people. According to news reports, local officials are stunned, including Mayor Dave Bing, who wants a recount.

After New Orleans, which lost 29 percent of its population in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Detroit’s 25 percent loss is the largest percentage drop in the history of an American city with more than 100,000 people. Just ten years ago, Detroit was the tenth largest city in the country. Demographers at the Brookings Institute now believe it might have fallen all the way to 18th, with just 713,777 people. That’s the smallest it’s been since 1910, just before the automotive boom brought millions of well-paid jobs and turned Detroit into the Motor City. It’s hard to imagine, but up until 1950, Detroit was the fourth biggest city in America. In 1960, it had the highest per-capita income in the U.S.

Why America can’t do big things today

There is some talk that American can’t do “big things” today, such as go to the moon. That may or may not be true, but it’s important to consider our fiscal situation today versus 1957 when the USSR launched Sputnik. From the AmSpec blog:

– In 2011, the U.S. will run a projected deficit of 9.8 percent of GDP, or nearly $1.5 trillion. In 1957, the government was running a surplus of .8 percent of GDP, or $120 billion if adjusted for the 2011 GDP estimate.

– In 2011, debt is projected to be 69.4 percent of GDP, and trending upward. In 1957, debt was 48.6 percent of GDP as we were still paying of debt from World War II, but trending downward. Adjusted for today’s dollars, the debt was $3.1 trillion lower back in 1957.

– In 2011, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other health care programs such as S-Chip cost about $1.6 trillion, or 10.6 percent of GDP. In 1957, Social Security cost 1.5 percent of GDP, or $226 billion if adjusted. Medicare, Medicaid, S-Chip, and related programs did not exist.