Category Archives: sports

The Worm was the greatest rebounder of all time

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The WSJ explains Rodman’s incredible rebounding ability:

[W]hat Rodman really should be known for, according to a ridiculously detailed series of blog posts that began last August and was completed last month — a month after Rodman was voted into the Hall of Fame — is being the best rebounder in NBA history and one of the league’s most valuable players ever.

Benjamin Morris, on his blog Skeptical Sports Analysis, begins his generally persuasive case by assessing Rodman in terms of his rebounding. Morris eschewed the rebounds per game stat, which is skewed in several ways. Fast-paced games have more possessions and more missed shots, creating more rebounding opportunities. That helped artificially boost the rebounding totals of Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell, whom Morris argues were good but not great rebounders blessed with a lot of missed shots to collect.

Instead Morris uses rebounding percentages on the offensive and defensive glass. These are estimates of what percentage of available rebounds a player collects. The average player should get 10%, since any of 10 players on the floor can grab the ball. That percentage should be a bit higher on the defensive side, because most rebounds are collected by the defensive team, and lower on the offensive side. But Rodman exceeded 10% on each side of the floor in each season of his career, usually by a wide margin. He grabbed 17.2% of available offensive rebounds and 29.6% of defensive rebounds, leading the league in the first stat seven times and the second six times. He has six of the 17 best seasons in history for offensive-rebounding percentage, and six of the 12 best for defensive-rebounding percentage. And unlike most top rebounders, one skill didn’t impede the other. Most players who are great on the defensive glass aren’t as good at corralling offensive rebounds, perhaps because they are behind their teammates in getting down the floor.

A Danish company is revolutionizing pitching data

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Tom Verducci writing in SI has an interesting article about some new high tech pitch tracking. New technology can measure the speed of a baseball at any point, as well as measure the spin of the pitch for breaking balls.  Interesting stuff:

Why does David Robertson’s fastball appear to have mysterious "hop" to it? Why is Justin Verlander’s curveball so hard to hit? And why are even the most accurate radar guns fooling scouts and they don’t even know it?

The answers are provided by a Danish technology company that may change the way teams scout and evaluate pitchers. Trackman, a company established in 2003, is taking some old-school observational theory out of baseball and replacing it with hard data derived from 3D Doppler radar ball flight measurement. The company already has established a foothold in professional golf and is bringing its tracking technology to baseball, where Sportvision’s Pitch-F/x system, another ball tracking technology, has been used widely for years.

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Trackman measures not just the speed of the pitch, but also the key variable: the distance between the pitcher’s release point and the plate. With those measurements, Trackman defines not only the time component of a fastball — "flight time," if you will — but also defines in irrefutable data why scouts might describe a pitcher as "sneaky fast" or throwing a ball with "hop."

Take, for instance, Robertson, the 5-foot-11 set-up reliever for the Yankees with that "lively" fastball. Robertson does not have exceptional size or velocity, but he ranks fourth among all active pitchers with at least 100 innings in strikeout rate (11.7 per nine innings, better than every pitcher except Carlos Marmol, Jonathan Broxton and Francisco Rodriguez, all of whom are well-paid closers.)

Why is Robertson so difficult to hit? According to Trackman’s measurements taken in one American League park last season, Robertson, with his exceptionally long stride and reach, released his fastball seven feet from in front of the pitching rubber — the largest average extension Trackman measured in that park. The average MLB fastball extension was five feet, 10 inches.

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What about breaking balls? Trackman can measure the spin rate of all pitches in revolutions per minute. Pitchers such as Sandy Koufax and Pedro Martinez could throw wicked breaking balls because they had long fingers that could generate tremendous spin, though no could quite quantify it. Spin rate is important for breaking balls because it not only correlates to movement but also to deception.

An Interview with UZR

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It’s baseball season and once again the non-stat minded are up in arms about using stats–especially advanced stats like UZR, VORP, FIP, etc. Joe Posnanski explains how UZR (ultimate zone rating) is a useful statistic by interview her:

Q: I thought so. So, you’ve heard what people say about how imprecise you are … what do you say those people.

UZR: I’d agree with that wholeheartedly. I’m a defensive statistic. There are all sorts of quirks and blips involved with measuring defense. I always tell people never to use just a year of me. You have to use at least three years to get real value out of my numbers.

Q: Three years?

UZR: Oh yes. AT LEAST three years. Defense is a complicated matter you know. If I may, I heard what Jim Fregosi said about me, and let me say that I’m a big fan of his. We met once, years ago, but he wouldn’t remember … anyway, I don’t doubt that he could watch a player for three days and determine if the player has range. I bet he could watch a player for two days or one day and say if he has range. I could never do that.

But that’s not what I’m trying to do. I’m trying to tell you how much a defensive player is helping his team. And I’m doing it with numbers. The managers look at Derek Jeter and tell you he’s a great defensive player, right? They give him the Gold Glove every year. Well, he might be a great defensive player by the eyes. He might be the smartest player in the world. He might have a sense that no other player on earth has. But I rank him 42 runs below average since 2002 because that’s how the numbers add up. I don’t judge based on how good or bad he looks. I mean, he looks good, he’s Derek Jeter, come on. I don’t care if he dives or doesn’t dive. I don’t care about any of that stuff. Does he make the play? Does he get to the ball? Does he turn two? These are the data points in my statistic.