Why political futures markets got the health care bill so wrong.

Daniel Gross argues in Newsweek that the political futures market, such as Intrade, got the health care bill wrong because you shouldn’t short Obama. That only half right—the complete answer is that the political future market got the health care bill wrong because people underestimated the lengths Obama was willing to go to get the bill passed, including sacrificing scores of Congressmen from his party.

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